Iran and Oman Seek a Deal, but the Gulf Route Remains Risky
Why an agreement is not the same as an open strait
Last updated: August 11, 2026
In early August, the reports sounded like de-escalation. Iran and Oman were close to an agreement on a new shipping route through the strait, and the White House indicated that vessels would be able to use it without additional permits, fees or toll payments.
President Trump also announced today, with some fanfare, that the United States had ensured the route was clear of sea mines.
In practice, the picture looks rather different. Very few vessels are transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The risk remains high. So if you source or deliver via the Persian Gulf, the announced agreement changes little about your planning for the time being.
One week from wishful thinking to reality
On August 6, Tehran reported that it had agreed the geographical coordinates for the passage with Oman, and that a joint declaration was all but finalized. The following day it emerged that, according to the White House, the alternative routes were to be free of charge. Up to that point, the news read like the beginning of a return to normal.
On August 9, Iran’s National Security Council tied any reopening to six conditions directed at the United States. These are:
- an end to all threats,
- the lifting of the naval blockade of Iranian ports,
- together with the withdrawal of US forces from the region,
- full compensation for war damages,
- the lifting of all sanctions,
- and the release of frozen assets.
At the same time, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi made clear that an agreement with Oman would not automatically lead to a reopening.
On August 10 came the development that changes the starting position most decisively. Foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei stated that Iran and Oman were jointly developing mechanisms for monitoring security, protecting the environment and combating crime at sea.
Fees and charges would be levied for these maritime services. According to insiders, the figures under discussion are five to seven percent of the cargo value of a transiting vessel on the Iranian side, and three percent on the Omani side.
Let us remember: before the war, transit was free of charge!
So within four days, “free of charge” has turned into a substantial levy calculated on the value of your cargo. Nothing has been decided yet, and the proposed charge is drawing sharp criticism from international partners. Even so, hope for an agreement is no longer a sound basis for planning.
Why an agreement does not add up to normalization
For all the diplomacy, the situation has not really eased.
The main channel remains closed. The central channel is still impassable because of the Iranian mines. The US President’s claim that the Strait of Hormuz is now mine-free thanks to the United States can be dismissed as pure fantasy.
Even if it does open, traffic under the new arrangement will not return to pre-war levels.
What is being discussed instead is a one-way circuit: vessels enter the Persian Gulf on a northern route and leave it on a southern route along the Omani coast.
This would be an interim solution for the period in which the sea mines laid by Iran are cleared. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi has said as much himself: the arrangement does not amount to a full reopening, but represents a new model.
The legal position is contested. At its narrowest point, the strait measures only around 39 kilometers. Iran and Oman each claim a twelve-nautical-mile zone, their territorial waters overlap, and there are no international waters there.
The UN Convention on the Law of the Sea guarantees a right of transit passage and prohibits the blockading of merchant vessels. Iran does not accept this legal position, and enforcing UNCLOS against Iran’s will is not a likely prospect.
On the water, it remains dangerous. According to data from S&P Global, the strait recorded 15 transits on August 3, five of them with no visible tracking signal. That same evening, a cargo vessel was struck by a projectile around 20 nautical miles northeast of Khasab in Oman.
What this means for your costs and transit times
War-driven cost increases are here to stay
Bunker fuel — heavy fuel oil or marine diesel used to power a vessel — currently costs around 50 percent more than before the war began. Crude oil is still about 10 percent above pre-war levels. That easing is fragile, however.
On Monday, Brent — the benchmark grade for North Sea crude — rose by a good one percent to just over 84 dollars a barrel. The drivers were the Houthi militia’s attack on a refinery belonging to Saudi oil group Saudi Aramco, and continuing uncertainty over when the strait will reopen.
This has been feeding into your quotations for months. In response to the dangerous situation in the Strait of Hormuz, shipping lines have introduced an Emergency Fuel Surcharge — a crisis-triggered fuel charge applied outside the regular bunker surcharge.
Nor would transit times shorten immediately if the strait actually opened.
Shipping lines always respond to an official political green light with a lag
They first have to settle insurance questions (war risk premiums), assess mine risks and observe how other market participants actually behave.
In the early phase, more vessels leave the Gulf than enter it. Long-haul vessels are likely to stay away until the lines trust the security situation.
Expect caution in feeder services too
- Large vessels (mother vessels) avoid the risk and discharge cargo outside the Gulf — in India or Oman, for example.
- Local feeder vessels would then have to make the run in. But because these are often owned by smaller lines with even less capacity to absorb high insurance premiums, they too are acting extremely cautiously.
For your shipments to and from India or to the Gulf states, this means the bottleneck is shifting from the strait itself to the onward connection behind it.
How to recognize a reopening that will hold
A signature on an agreement does nothing for you in itself. We are watching three other developments.
- Completed mine clearance in the main channel. Only once the central channel is navigable again does the one-way circuit fall away. As long as the interim arrangement described above is in place, so is its possible 60-day time limit. That kind of instability makes planning difficult.
- The return of long-haul services. When shipping lines start sending large vessels into the Gulf again rather than only handling departures, they have reassessed the situation internally. That is a better indicator than any announcement.
- Binding decisions on the fees. A fixed rate can be priced in. A dispute over five to seven percent of cargo value cannot be costed, and it keeps surcharges high.
Our assessment: as long as reopening is tied to six political concessions from the United States, and Iranian decisions additionally require confirmation from the Supreme Leader, an opening is not to be expected. Politicians may offer reassurance in order to make a good impression. In practice, though, little will change for now.
We therefore assume that transit times on Gulf trade lanes will not normalize until well into the fourth quarter, and that fuel surcharges will not fall back to early-2026 levels any time soon.
What you can do now
Three things can be decided regardless of where the negotiations stand.
- Treat surcharges as a variable. With every quotation, check how long the fuel surcharge is valid for and who is entitled to adjust it after the fact. Comparing rates without that date can lead to expensive surprises later.
- Have the onward leg beyond the strait confirmed separately. For Gulf destinations and for consignments transshipped there, the feeder service is currently the weakest link. Make sure it is named explicitly in the quotation, not just the main leg.
- Cost out an air freight option for time-critical goods. You don’t have to book it, but you should know the price before a delay forces your hand. Fuel costs have risen in air freight too, so only ever compare against genuinely current quotations.
For our clients in pharmaceuticals, medical technology and mechanical engineering, the Strait of Hormuz is rarely the direct route. They are affected nonetheless, because fuel prices feed into every ocean freight rate, and because capacity tied up in the Gulf is capacity missing elsewhere. If you would like your current and planned shipments reviewed against this situation, get in touch.
